Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 10, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 10, 2026, 10:19 PM to 10:48 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 10, 2026 at 10:19 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 16.6367. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:48 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

11.1816.4721.76Sep 10, 10:19 PM ET10:48 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:19 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

11.1816.4721.76Sep 10, 10:19 PM ET10:48 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:19 PM ET16.6367
Projected value at 10:48 PM ET21.0511
Actual value at 10:48 PM ET13.1172
Projected change across the window+4.41439
Actual change across the window-3.51956
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading21 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.25×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise, while it fell instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.25 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 21 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 12 (10:30 PM ET), where they sat 0.0102086 apart, and furthest at bar 24 (10:43 PM ET) with a gap of 10.0907. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 23 (10:42 PM ET), a move of -3.60512. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:20 PM21.906117.788-4.11811
610:25 PM20.457819.3581-1.09973
1210:31 PM20.300319.7841-0.516118
1810:37 PM20.892817.4935-3.39932
2410:43 PM20.563210.4725-10.0907
2910:48 PM21.051113.1172-7.93395

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.