Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 10, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 10, 2026, 3:51 PM to 4:20 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 10, 2026 at 3:51 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 11.875. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:20 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

9.44513.5517.66Sep 10, 3:51 PM ET4:20 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 3:51 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

9.44513.5517.66Sep 10, 3:51 PM ET4:20 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:51 PM ET11.875
Projected value at 4:20 PM ET18.2078
Actual value at 4:20 PM ET16.9413
Projected change across the window+6.3328
Actual change across the window+5.06629
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading20 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.25×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.25 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 20 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 6 (3:56 PM ET), where they sat 0.606131 apart, and furthest at bar 20 (4:11 PM ET) with a gap of 4.85445. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 15 (4:06 PM ET), a move of -1.14234. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:52 PM8.9686611.5498+2.58109
63:57 PM11.11749.99939-1.11797
124:03 PM13.777811.4812-2.29651
184:09 PM15.81111.3502-4.46086
244:15 PM17.378313.7534-3.62487
294:20 PM18.207816.9413-1.2665

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.