Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 10, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 10, 2026, 2:05 PM to 2:34 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 10, 2026 at 2:05 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 15.7971. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:34 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.0417.3421.63Sep 10, 2:05 PM ET2:34 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 2:05 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.0417.3421.63Sep 10, 2:05 PM ET2:34 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:05 PM ET15.7971
Projected value at 2:34 PM ET18.6627
Actual value at 2:34 PM ET18.8668
Projected change across the window+2.86557
Actual change across the window+3.06967
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading23 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.93×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.93 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 23 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (2:33 PM ET), where they sat 0.183598 apart, and furthest at bar 22 (2:27 PM ET) with a gap of 3.90619. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 26 (2:31 PM ET), a move of -1.69101. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:06 PM14.29915.8659+1.5669
62:11 PM15.827912.7373-3.09062
122:17 PM17.336515.9507-1.38576
182:23 PM18.059520.4961+2.43659
242:29 PM18.394621.7692+3.3746
292:34 PM18.662718.8668+0.204096

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.