Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 10, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 10, 2026, 1:59 PM to 2:28 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 10, 2026 at 1:59 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 12.7373. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:28 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.3718.0422.72Sep 10, 1:59 PM ET2:28 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 1:59 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.3718.0422.72Sep 10, 1:59 PM ET2:28 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:59 PM ET12.7373
Projected value at 2:28 PM ET17.9823
Actual value at 2:28 PM ET22.9345
Projected change across the window+5.24499
Actual change across the window+10.1972
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.51×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.51 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 3 (2:01 PM ET), where they sat 0.0248499 apart, and furthest at bar 28 (2:27 PM ET) with a gap of 5.42464. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 20 (2:19 PM ET), a move of -1.69101. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:00 PM13.117713.0073-0.110379
62:05 PM14.463215.9507+1.48751
122:11 PM16.087820.4961+4.40837
182:17 PM17.156121.7692+4.61304
242:23 PM17.840619.1051+1.26448
292:28 PM17.982322.9345+4.95222

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.