Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 10, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 10, 2026, 9:36 AM to 10:05 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 10, 2026 at 9:36 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 35.2184. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:05 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

16.0525.0334.01Sep 10, 9:36 AM ET10:05 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 9:36 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

16.0525.0334.01Sep 10, 9:36 AM ET10:05 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:36 AM ET35.2184
Projected value at 10:05 AM ET21.6539
Actual value at 10:05 AM ET23.5213
Projected change across the window-13.5645
Actual change across the window-11.6971
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.16×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.16 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 23 (9:58 AM ET), where they sat 0.0341891 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (9:36 AM ET) with a gap of 16.6006. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 5 (9:41 AM ET), a move of -2.67034. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:37 AM18.165433.9929+15.8275
69:42 AM17.196124.2271+7.03099
129:48 AM18.319315.1165-3.20278
189:54 AM19.675419.5467-0.128646
2410:00 AM20.947821.2791+0.331317
2910:05 AM21.653923.5213+1.86741

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.