Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 10, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 10, 2026, 6:32 AM to 7:01 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 10, 2026 at 6:32 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 31.2809. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:01 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

16.0624.1232.19Sep 10, 6:32 AM ET7:01 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:32 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

16.0624.1232.19Sep 10, 6:32 AM ET7:01 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:32 AM ET31.2809
Projected value at 7:01 AM ET19.3735
Actual value at 7:01 AM ET24.1721
Projected change across the window-11.9074
Actual change across the window-7.10878
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.68×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.68 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (6:59 AM ET), where they sat 3.30492 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (6:32 AM ET) with a gap of 16.3072. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 14 (6:46 AM ET), a move of -1.83121. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:33 AM16.700330.1594+13.4591
66:38 AM21.035929.4051+8.36918
126:44 AM21.004133.2167+12.2126
186:50 AM20.391726.0829+5.69123
246:56 AM19.674523.3025+3.62803
297:01 AM19.373524.1721+4.79858

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.