Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 10, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 10, 2026, 5:42 AM to 6:11 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 10, 2026 at 5:42 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 55.425. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:11 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

29.1644.3559.54Sep 10, 5:42 AM ET6:11 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 5:42 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

29.1644.3559.54Sep 10, 5:42 AM ET6:11 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:42 AM ET55.425
Projected value at 6:11 AM ET27.1237
Actual value at 6:11 AM ET30.6511
Projected change across the window-28.3012
Actual change across the window-24.7739
Bars moving the same direction25 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.14×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.14 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 86% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 23 (6:04 AM ET), where they sat 3.16719 apart, and furthest at bar 5 (5:47 AM ET) with a gap of 17.4121. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 15 (5:57 AM ET), a move of -2.70387. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:43 AM44.786756.4739+11.6872
65:48 AM43.424459.9158+16.4914
125:54 AM37.069547.51+10.4405
186:00 AM32.647236.9447+4.29751
246:06 AM29.41732.889+3.47195
296:11 AM27.123730.6511+3.52733

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.