Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 10, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 10, 2026, 5:36 AM to 6:05 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 10, 2026 at 5:36 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 61.5795. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:05 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

26.542.9359.37Sep 10, 5:36 AM ET6:05 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 5:36 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

26.542.9359.37Sep 10, 5:36 AM ET6:05 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:36 AM ET61.5795
Projected value at 6:05 AM ET24.29
Actual value at 6:05 AM ET34.4475
Projected change across the window-37.2896
Actual change across the window-27.132
Bars moving the same direction23 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.37×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.37 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 79% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 25 (6:00 AM ET), where they sat 5.20411 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (5:36 AM ET) with a gap of 26.5291. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 10 (5:46 AM ET), a move of -2.70387. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:37 AM35.91459.9158+24.0018
65:42 AM35.282349.8245+14.5422
125:48 AM30.90837.9325+7.02448
185:54 AM27.74733.4578+5.71081
246:00 AM25.446930.6511+5.20411
296:05 AM24.2934.4475+10.1575

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Best predictive ADX for NinjaTrader Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

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Future candle indicator for NQ in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 PredictIndicators is a next candle prediction indicator: it draws the predicted next candles of NQ, up to 30 bars ahead, on your NinjaTrader 8 or MetaTrader 5 chart and redraws them as each bar closes. Next candle prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.