Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 10, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 10, 2026, 5:05 AM to 5:34 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 10, 2026 at 5:05 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 38.6222. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:34 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

21.4230.9440.46Sep 10, 5:05 AM ET5:34 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 5:05 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

21.4230.9440.46Sep 10, 5:05 AM ET5:34 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:05 AM ET38.6222
Projected value at 5:34 AM ET22.1894
Actual value at 5:34 AM ET20.1434
Projected change across the window-16.4328
Actual change across the window-18.4788
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.89×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.89 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (5:33 AM ET), where they sat 0.378978 apart, and furthest at bar 3 (5:08 AM ET) with a gap of 16.8179. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 26 (5:31 AM ET), a move of -2.67209. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:06 AM25.963440.7058+14.7425
65:11 AM23.41337.5568+14.1438
125:17 AM22.312434.2956+11.9832
185:23 AM21.895129.6981+7.80296
245:29 AM21.968332.1059+10.1376
295:34 AM22.189420.1434-2.04602

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Download MetaTrader AI ADX Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NinjaTrader why do AI indicator predictions change for NQ A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

MetaTrader AI trend strength analysis Yes. The same PredictIndicators predictions run on MetaTrader 5 charts, with one licence covering MT5 and NinjaTrader 8. MetaTrader 5 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.