Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 10, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 10, 2026, 4:40 AM to 5:09 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 10, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 32.1059. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:09 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

11.0620.9230.78Sep 10, 4:40 AM ET5:09 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 4:40 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

11.0620.9230.78Sep 10, 4:40 AM ET5:09 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:40 AM ET32.1059
Projected value at 5:09 AM ET18.5037
Actual value at 5:09 AM ET15.5697
Projected change across the window-13.6022
Actual change across the window-16.5362
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.82×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.82 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 10 (4:49 AM ET), where they sat 0.402402 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (4:40 AM ET) with a gap of 16.8778. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 2 (4:42 AM ET), a move of -2.67209. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:41 AM14.6830.1746+15.4946
64:46 AM14.046918.5065+4.45956
124:52 AM14.891210.8884-4.00287
184:58 AM16.473911.7664-4.70754
245:04 AM17.465911.932-5.5339
295:09 AM18.503715.5697-2.93399

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.