Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 10, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 10, 2026, 1:48 AM to 2:17 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 10, 2026 at 1:48 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 31.7284. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:17 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

2840.4352.87Sep 10, 1:48 AM ET2:17 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 1:48 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

2840.4352.87Sep 10, 1:48 AM ET2:17 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:48 AM ET31.7284
Projected value at 2:17 AM ET26.3253
Actual value at 2:17 AM ET27.5994
Projected change across the window-5.40313
Actual change across the window-4.12908
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading18 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.31×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.31 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 18 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 26 (2:13 AM ET), where they sat 0.142792 apart, and furthest at bar 2 (1:50 AM ET) with a gap of 24.2783. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 10 (1:58 AM ET), a move of +1.89456. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:49 AM53.958930.3692-23.5897
61:54 AM48.838227.8552-20.983
122:00 AM41.105633.2089-7.89673
182:06 AM34.129731.7425-2.38716
242:12 AM28.833328.3159-0.517406
292:17 AM26.325327.5994+1.27405

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.