Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 10, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 10, 2026, 1:43 AM to 2:12 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 10, 2026 at 1:43 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 27.1524. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:12 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

27.0239.8852.74Sep 10, 1:43 AM ET2:12 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 1:43 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

27.0239.8852.74Sep 10, 1:43 AM ET2:12 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:43 AM ET27.1524
Projected value at 2:12 AM ET25.2898
Actual value at 2:12 AM ET29.4865
Projected change across the window-1.8626
Actual change across the window+2.33407
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.80×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall, while it rose instead. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.80 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 25 (2:07 AM ET), where they sat 0.266778 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (1:43 AM ET) with a gap of 27.3125. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 5 (1:48 AM ET), a move of +1.89456. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:44 AM53.041927.8552-25.1867
61:49 AM45.665133.3116-12.3535
121:55 AM37.273331.992-5.2813
182:01 AM31.375628.48-2.89555
242:07 AM27.866127.5994-0.266778
292:12 AM25.289829.4865+4.19666

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Best NT8 AI ADX Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

MetaTrader Stochastics prediction accuracy for Nasdaq 100 futures A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

NinjaTrader AI explains current chart for Nasdaq 100 futures The PredictIndicators chat indicator runs live on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts: ask about the NQ chart, the predicted candles and the indicators, and the answer appears on the chart. AI chat indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.