Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 10, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 10, 2026, 12:50 AM to 1:19 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 10, 2026 at 12:50 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 25.6045. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:19 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

14.3121.6829.05Sep 10, 12:50 AM ET1:19 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:50 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

14.3121.6829.05Sep 10, 12:50 AM ET1:19 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:50 AM ET25.6045
Projected value at 1:19 AM ET18.6716
Actual value at 1:19 AM ET19.7899
Projected change across the window-6.93292
Actual change across the window-5.81455
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.19×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.19 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (1:18 AM ET), where they sat 0.312407 apart, and furthest at bar 19 (1:09 AM ET) with a gap of 7.24577. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 2 (12:52 AM ET), a move of -1.73477. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:51 AM29.746323.9771-5.76924
612:56 AM26.537319.9712-6.5661
121:02 AM23.427616.4446-6.983
181:08 AM20.973414.1446-6.82885
241:14 AM19.431217.1404-2.29079
291:19 AM18.671619.7899+1.11838

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.