Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 9, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 9, 2026, 11:41 PM to 12:10 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 9, 2026 at 11:41 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 9.08994. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:10 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

9.88115.7721.66Sep 9, 11:41 PM ET12:10 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:41 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

9.88115.7721.66Sep 9, 11:41 PM ET12:10 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:41 PM ET9.08994
Projected value at 12:10 AM ET17.8623
Actual value at 12:10 AM ET19.7099
Projected change across the window+8.77237
Actual change across the window+10.62
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.83×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.83 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 20 (12:00 AM ET), where they sat 0.290391 apart, and furthest at bar 27 (12:08 AM ET) with a gap of 4.77544. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (12:09 AM ET), a move of -1.82062. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:42 PM13.36819.61899-3.74911
611:47 PM13.381511.0646-2.31684
1211:53 PM14.93912.8731-2.06594
1811:59 PM16.362715.6571-0.705561
2412:05 AM17.361220.1035+2.74229
2912:10 AM17.862319.7099+1.84762

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.