Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 9, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 9, 2026, 11:40 PM to 12:09 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 9, 2026 at 11:40 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 9.61899. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:09 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

10.3816.0421.69Sep 9, 11:40 PM ET12:09 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:40 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

10.3816.0421.69Sep 9, 11:40 PM ET12:09 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:40 PM ET9.61899
Projected value at 12:09 AM ET18.8701
Actual value at 12:09 AM ET17.8584
Projected change across the window+9.2511
Actual change across the window+8.23945
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.12×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.12 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 20 (11:59 PM ET), where they sat 0.402283 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (11:40 PM ET) with a gap of 5.28302. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (12:09 AM ET), a move of -1.85149. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:41 PM14.53829.61615-4.92209
611:46 PM14.676410.9402-3.73622
1211:52 PM15.899113.6252-2.27385
1811:58 PM17.480516.812-0.668499
2412:04 AM18.338920.0537+1.71482
2912:09 AM18.870117.8584-1.01165

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.