Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 9, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 9, 2026, 10:34 PM to 11:03 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 9, 2026 at 10:34 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 14.8634. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:03 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.3919.2723.16Sep 9, 10:34 PM ET11:03 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:34 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.3919.2723.16Sep 9, 10:34 PM ET11:03 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:34 PM ET14.8634
Projected value at 11:03 PM ET20.3239
Actual value at 11:03 PM ET19.5704
Projected change across the window+5.46046
Actual change across the window+4.70695
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.16×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.16 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 25 (10:58 PM ET), where they sat 0.246023 apart, and furthest at bar 15 (10:49 PM ET) with a gap of 4.94795. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 9 (10:43 PM ET), a move of +1.23517. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:35 PM17.386615.0303-2.35637
610:40 PM17.381717.9798+0.598039
1210:46 PM18.389922.6664+4.27644
1810:52 PM19.227521.6113+2.38375
2410:58 PM20.11119.865-0.246023
2911:03 PM20.323919.5704-0.753509

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.