Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 9, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 9, 2026, 6:00 PM to 6:29 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 9, 2026 at 6:00 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 28.4129. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:29 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

18.9325.9232.91Sep 9, 6:00 PM ET6:29 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:00 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

18.9325.9232.91Sep 9, 6:00 PM ET6:29 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:00 PM ET28.4129
Projected value at 6:29 PM ET19.3091
Actual value at 6:29 PM ET18.8275
Projected change across the window-9.10383
Actual change across the window-9.58539
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading18 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.95×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.95 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 18 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 27 (6:26 PM ET), where they sat 0.370854 apart, and furthest at bar 6 (6:06 PM ET) with a gap of 14.6462. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 2 (6:02 PM ET), a move of +1.75425. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:01 PM18.53530.0242+11.4892
66:06 PM19.204633.8508+14.6462
126:12 PM19.763729.1199+9.35612
186:18 PM19.856325.9901+6.13388
246:24 PM19.619121.1386+1.5195
296:29 PM19.309118.8275-0.481561

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.