Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 9, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 9, 2026, 1:11 PM to 1:40 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 9, 2026 at 1:11 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 12.78. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:40 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.518.8524.2Sep 9, 1:11 PM ET1:40 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 1:11 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.518.8524.2Sep 9, 1:11 PM ET1:40 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:11 PM ET12.78
Projected value at 1:40 PM ET21.8713
Actual value at 1:40 PM ET17.9566
Projected change across the window+9.09136
Actual change across the window+5.1766
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.76×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.76 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 13 (1:23 PM ET), where they sat 0.0139794 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (1:11 PM ET) with a gap of 8.09986. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 13 (1:24 PM ET), a move of +1.54325. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:12 PM20.509112.8377-7.67141
61:17 PM20.361916.1761-4.18577
121:23 PM20.886620.8726-0.0139794
181:29 PM21.909322.5716+0.66233
241:35 PM21.818621.7465-0.0721132
291:40 PM21.871317.9566-3.91476

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.