Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 9, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 9, 2026, 12:20 PM to 12:49 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 9, 2026 at 12:20 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 25.7586. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:49 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

18.6623.227.74Sep 9, 12:20 PM ET12:49 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:20 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

18.6623.227.74Sep 9, 12:20 PM ET12:49 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:20 PM ET25.7586
Projected value at 12:49 PM ET22.0083
Actual value at 12:49 PM ET23.407
Projected change across the window-3.7503
Actual change across the window-2.35156
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.59×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.59 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 10 (12:29 PM ET), where they sat 0.127189 apart, and furthest at bar 3 (12:23 PM ET) with a gap of 4.71413. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 8 (12:28 PM ET), a move of -1.74622. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:21 PM22.942927.1828+4.23991
612:26 PM23.462427.303+3.84056
1212:32 PM22.396821.5902-0.806582
1812:38 PM22.121318.5856-3.53569
2412:44 PM22.175224.5372+2.36199
2912:49 PM22.008323.407+1.39874

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.