Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 9, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 9, 2026, 11:28 AM to 11:57 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 9, 2026 at 11:28 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 17.8982. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:57 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

18.4822.8227.17Sep 9, 11:28 AM ET11:57 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 11:28 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

18.4822.8227.17Sep 9, 11:28 AM ET11:57 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:28 AM ET17.8982
Projected value at 11:57 AM ET23.6437
Actual value at 11:57 AM ET27.1681
Projected change across the window+5.7455
Actual change across the window+9.26993
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.62×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.62 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 25 (11:52 AM ET), where they sat 0.299329 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (11:28 AM ET) with a gap of 9.39119. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 25 (11:53 AM ET), a move of +1.56995. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:29 AM27.497518.6795-8.81794
611:34 AM27.118620.9921-6.12648
1211:40 AM24.83618.6454-6.19062
1811:46 AM24.351518.9588-5.39269
2411:52 AM24.22624.5253+0.299329
2911:57 AM23.643727.1681+3.52443

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Buy NinjaTrader predictive AI ADX PredictIndicators draws the predicted ADX for NQ up to 30 bars ahead on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts, next to the ADX you already use. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.