Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 9, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 9, 2026, 9:57 AM to 10:26 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 9, 2026 at 9:57 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 57.7647. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:26 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

20.8838.1655.44Sep 9, 9:57 AM ET10:26 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 9:57 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

20.8838.1655.44Sep 9, 9:57 AM ET10:26 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:57 AM ET57.7647
Projected value at 10:26 AM ET28.4229
Actual value at 10:26 AM ET19.9216
Projected change across the window-29.3418
Actual change across the window-37.8431
Bars moving the same direction26 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.78×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.78 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 90% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 5 (10:01 AM ET), where they sat 0.16607 apart, and furthest at bar 26 (10:23 AM ET) with a gap of 10.8559. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 4 (10:01 AM ET), a move of -2.36055. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:58 AM49.391955.7541+6.36224
610:03 AM47.594844.8103-2.78449
1210:09 AM40.418537.1437-3.27479
1810:15 AM34.844130.742-4.10201
2410:21 AM30.531821.0521-9.47971
2910:26 AM28.422919.9216-8.50125

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.