Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 9, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 9, 2026, 9:09 AM to 9:38 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 9, 2026 at 9:09 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 16.8947. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:38 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.0518.0523.05Sep 9, 9:09 AM ET9:38 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 9:09 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.0518.0523.05Sep 9, 9:09 AM ET9:38 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:09 AM ET16.8947
Projected value at 9:38 AM ET19.4835
Actual value at 9:38 AM ET19.0919
Projected change across the window+2.58883
Actual change across the window+2.19722
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.18×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.18 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 15 (9:23 AM ET), where they sat 0.102452 apart, and furthest at bar 21 (9:30 AM ET) with a gap of 4.71964. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 26 (9:35 AM ET), a move of -1.3193. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:10 AM14.915815.7263+0.81045
69:15 AM15.796213.1684-2.62789
129:21 AM17.449315.8518-1.59748
189:27 AM18.755421.8988+3.14342
249:33 AM19.060122.5957+3.53557
299:38 AM19.483519.0919-0.391602

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.