Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 9, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 9, 2026, 7:42 AM to 8:11 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 9, 2026 at 7:42 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 12.7593. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:11 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.5719.5825.6Sep 9, 7:42 AM ET8:11 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 7:42 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.5719.5825.6Sep 9, 7:42 AM ET8:11 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:42 AM ET12.7593
Projected value at 8:11 AM ET19.4525
Actual value at 8:11 AM ET22.9301
Projected change across the window+6.69314
Actual change across the window+10.1708
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.66×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.66 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 15 (7:56 AM ET), where they sat 0.205866 apart, and furthest at bar 26 (8:08 AM ET) with a gap of 6.6939. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 24 (8:06 AM ET), a move of +1.40956. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:43 AM18.031113.11-4.92111
67:48 AM18.276515.3289-2.94755
127:54 AM18.520118.1141-0.406042
188:00 AM18.978918.5498-0.429132
248:06 AM19.60625.8877+6.28171
298:11 AM19.452522.9301+3.47766

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Download predictive ADX for NinjaTrader 8 Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

Future candle prediction indicator for NQ PredictIndicators is a next candle prediction indicator: it draws the predicted next candles of NQ, up to 30 bars ahead, on your NinjaTrader 8 or MetaTrader 5 chart and redraws them as each bar closes. Next candle prediction indicator →

MetaTrader 5 AI assistant for Nasdaq 100 futures Yes. The chat indicator sits on your NinjaTrader 8 or MetaTrader 5 NQ chart: ask where the prediction turns or what the open indicators agree on. It answers questions; it does not place trades. ChatGPT for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.