Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 9, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 9, 2026, 6:59 AM to 7:28 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 9, 2026 at 6:59 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 36.3914. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:28 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.8526.5435.22Sep 9, 6:59 AM ET7:28 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 6:59 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.8526.5435.22Sep 9, 6:59 AM ET7:28 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:59 AM ET36.3914
Projected value at 7:28 AM ET21.4085
Actual value at 7:28 AM ET26.7179
Projected change across the window-14.9829
Actual change across the window-9.67344
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.55×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.55 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 9 (7:07 AM ET), where they sat 0.195456 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (6:59 AM ET) with a gap of 9.46416. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 1 (7:00 AM ET), a move of -1.76291. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:00 AM26.114134.6285+8.51439
67:05 AM23.615626.6818+3.06618
127:11 AM22.387619.7543-2.63335
187:17 AM21.870419.4618-2.40861
247:23 AM21.842324.8016+2.95925
297:28 AM21.408526.7179+5.30948

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Live confidence score ADX for MetaTrader Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on NQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

NinjaTrader AI trading chat indicator for Nasdaq 100 futures The PredictIndicators chat indicator runs live on NinjaTrader 8 and MetaTrader 5 charts: ask about the NQ chart, the predicted candles and the indicators, and the answer appears on the chart. AI chat indicator →

How do I add the NQ prediction indicator in NinjaTrader 8? In NinjaTrader 8 import the zip with Tools → Import → NinjaScript Add On; in MetaTrader 5 run the setup. Then add PredictIndicators to your NQ chart. How to install →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.