Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 8, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 8, 2026, 1:00 PM to 1:29 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 8, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 46.8859. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:29 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

22.0533.6945.32Sep 8, 1:00 PM ET1:29 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 1:00 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

22.0533.6945.32Sep 8, 1:00 PM ET1:29 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:00 PM ET46.8859
Projected value at 1:29 PM ET21.1653
Actual value at 1:29 PM ET23.7319
Projected change across the window-25.7206
Actual change across the window-23.154
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.11×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.11 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (1:29 PM ET), where they sat 2.56659 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (1:00 PM ET) with a gap of 25.3441. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (1:29 PM ET), a move of -2.12217. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:01 PM21.551745.4849+23.9333
61:06 PM21.032939.2777+18.2448
121:12 PM20.664236.024+15.3598
181:18 PM21.23734.8861+13.6491
241:24 PM21.346433.418+12.0716
291:29 PM21.165323.7319+2.56659

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.