Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 8, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 8, 2026, 12:29 PM to 12:58 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 8, 2026 at 12:29 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 20.3907. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:58 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

14.7718.4922.21Sep 8, 12:29 PM ET12:58 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:29 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

14.7718.4922.21Sep 8, 12:29 PM ET12:58 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:29 PM ET20.3907
Projected value at 12:58 PM ET19.0199
Actual value at 12:58 PM ET22.705
Projected change across the window-1.3708
Actual change across the window+2.31437
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.59×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall, while it rose instead. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.59 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 16 (12:44 PM ET), where they sat 0.205022 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (12:29 PM ET) with a gap of 5.79978. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 19 (12:48 PM ET), a move of +1.23727. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:30 PM14.410619.4164+5.0057
612:35 PM14.752616.7484+1.99581
1212:41 PM16.300716.9663+0.665544
1812:47 PM17.02816.2216-0.806338
2412:53 PM17.969620.0461+2.07655
2912:58 PM19.019922.705+3.68518

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.