Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — E mini Nasdaq 100, 10 minute chart, October 23, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 23, 2026, 1:18 AM to 6:08 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 23, 2026 at 1:18 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the E mini Nasdaq 100 10 minute chart read 24.2338. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:08 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

7.97816.124.23Oct 23, 1:18 AM ET6:08 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 1:18 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

7.97816.124.23Oct 23, 1:18 AM ET6:08 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:18 AM ET24.2338
Projected value at 6:08 AM ET16.508
Actual value at 6:08 AM ET19.5099
Projected change across the window-7.72581
Actual change across the window-4.72391
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.64×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.64 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (6:08 AM ET), where they sat 3.0019 apart, and furthest at bar 2 (1:38 AM ET) with a gap of 17.0997. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 7 (2:28 AM ET), a move of -1.63247. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:28 AM7.7551924.758+17.0028
62:18 AM7.4182921.7819+14.3636
123:18 AM7.624814.7497+7.12486
184:18 AM7.3146512.1407+4.82608
245:18 AM9.0831715.7025+6.6193
296:08 AM16.50819.5099+3.0019

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 10 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 10 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 5 hours of E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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MetaTrader ATR prediction accuracy for Nasdaq 100 futures A prediction is an estimate, not a certainty. PredictIndicators publishes its predicted values next to what the market actually did, so they can be checked before relying on them. Predictions vs what happened →

MetaTrader how often do AI predictions update Yes. The same PredictIndicators predictions run on MetaTrader 5 charts, with one licence covering MT5 and NinjaTrader 8. MetaTrader 5 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.