Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 59-minute chart, September 22, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 22, 2026, 12:48 PM to 5:19 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 22, 2026 at 12:48 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 59-minute chart read 13.6499. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:19 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.8719.5325.18Sep 22, 12:48 PM ET5:19 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:48 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.8719.5325.18Sep 22, 12:48 PM ET5:19 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:48 PM ET13.6499
Projected value at 5:19 PM ET20.4616
Actual value at 5:19 PM ET19.7507
Projected change across the window+6.81164
Actual change across the window+6.10081
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.12×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.12 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 8 (7:41 PM ET), where they sat 0.0360061 apart, and furthest at bar 18 (6:30 AM ET) with a gap of 6.82418. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 17 (5:31 AM ET), a move of +1.60881. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:47 PM15.132413.6781-1.45427
66:42 PM15.797615.2104-0.587196
1212:36 AM17.380220.066+2.68572
186:30 AM18.808825.633+6.82418
2412:24 PM19.803421.5613+1.75795
295:19 PM20.461619.7507-0.710832

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 59-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 59-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 29.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 29.5 hours of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.