Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 59 minute chart, September 22, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 22, 2026, 10:02 AM to 2:33 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 22, 2026 at 10:02 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 59 minute chart read 49.5282. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:33 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

14.6130.9747.33Sep 22, 10:02 AM ET2:33 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:02 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

14.6130.9747.33Sep 22, 10:02 AM ET2:33 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:02 AM ET49.5282
Projected value at 2:33 PM ET22.3745
Actual value at 2:33 PM ET13.3609
Projected change across the window-27.1537
Actual change across the window-36.1673
Bars moving the same direction27 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.75×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.75 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 93% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 18 (2:45 AM ET), where they sat 0.509046 apart, and furthest at bar 8 (5:54 PM ET) with a gap of 19.2192. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 16 (1:46 AM ET), a move of -3.76287. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:01 AM34.122249.3878+15.2656
63:56 PM28.201446.7739+18.5725
129:50 PM24.539437.5392+12.9998
183:44 AM23.197421.3564-1.84103
249:38 AM22.304314.7219-7.58239
292:33 PM22.374513.3609-9.01361

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 59 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 59 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 29.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 29.5 hours of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Free trial artificial intelligence ADX for MetaTrader Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on MNQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

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MetaTrader predict MACD histogram direction for MNQ Yes. The same PredictIndicators predictions run on MetaTrader 5 charts, with one licence covering MT5 and NinjaTrader 8. MetaTrader 5 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.