Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, November 2, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers November 2, 2026, 8:40 AM to 9:09 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On November 2, 2026 at 8:40 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 16.0486. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:09 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

15.8225.8535.88Nov 2, 8:40 AM ET9:09 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 8:40 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

15.8225.8535.88Nov 2, 8:40 AM ET9:09 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:40 AM ET16.0486
Projected value at 9:09 AM ET18.7231
Actual value at 9:09 AM ET14.4687
Projected change across the window+2.67444
Actual change across the window-1.57988
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.69×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise, while it fell instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.69 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 26 (9:05 AM ET), where they sat 3.06078 apart, and furthest at bar 15 (8:55 AM ET) with a gap of 13.8261. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 27 (9:07 AM ET), a move of -1.64586. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:41 AM28.771417.2553-11.5161
68:46 AM34.656721.2763-13.3804
128:52 AM35.346627.3762-7.97035
188:58 AM33.556221.6161-11.9401
249:04 AM24.041220.0812-3.96
299:09 AM18.723114.4687-4.25432

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Best predictive ADX for MT5 Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on MNQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.