Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, October 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 30, 2026, 4:23 AM to 4:52 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On October 30, 2026 at 4:23 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 39.4447. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:52 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.5325.1437.75Oct 30, 4:23 AM ET4:52 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 4:23 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.5325.1437.75Oct 30, 4:23 AM ET4:52 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:23 AM ET39.4447
Projected value at 4:52 AM ET12.2574
Actual value at 4:52 AM ET17.9613
Projected change across the window-27.1873
Actual change across the window-21.4834
Bars moving the same direction23 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.27×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.27 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 79% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 13 (4:35 AM ET), where they sat 0.0233686 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (4:24 AM ET) with a gap of 14.3659. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 3 (4:26 AM ET), a move of -2.49152. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:24 AM24.138638.5045+14.3659
64:29 AM18.23126.3284+8.09744
124:35 AM14.230414.207-0.0233686
184:41 AM12.362711.9616-0.401094
244:47 AM11.814.3959+2.59585
294:52 AM12.257417.9613+5.70391

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.