Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, October 25, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 25, 2026, 7:55 PM to 8:24 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 25, 2026 at 7:55 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 22.864. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:24 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

9.14123.9838.82Oct 25, 7:55 PM ET8:24 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 7:55 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

9.14123.9838.82Oct 25, 7:55 PM ET8:24 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:55 PM ET22.864
Projected value at 8:24 PM ET14.3154
Actual value at 8:24 PM ET8.47036
Projected change across the window-8.54855
Actual change across the window-14.3936
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.59×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.59 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (8:22 PM ET), where they sat 4.80907 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (7:55 PM ET) with a gap of 17.9464. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 9 (8:04 PM ET), a move of -1.63593. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:56 PM39.115521.9253-17.1902
68:01 PM29.062120.1067-8.95541
128:07 PM21.417414.9139-6.50357
188:13 PM17.796210.2366-7.55961
248:19 PM14.36367.7218-6.64184
298:24 PM14.31548.47036-5.84507

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.