Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 2, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 2, 2026, 10:51 AM to 11:20 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 2, 2026 at 10:51 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 11.7564. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:20 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.7420.0627.38Oct 2, 10:51 AM ET11:20 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:51 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.7420.0627.38Oct 2, 10:51 AM ET11:20 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:51 AM ET11.7564
Projected value at 11:20 AM ET25.4173
Actual value at 11:20 AM ET22.9626
Projected change across the window+13.6609
Actual change across the window+11.2062
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.22×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.22 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (11:19 AM ET), where they sat 0.446816 apart, and furthest at bar 18 (11:09 AM ET) with a gap of 6.64857. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (11:19 AM ET), a move of -2.34287. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:52 AM15.020512.3129-2.70764
610:57 AM20.281316.6014-3.67988
1211:03 AM24.068817.9395-6.12937
1811:09 AM25.725519.0769-6.64857
2411:15 AM25.790326.9588+1.16848
2911:20 AM25.417322.9626-2.45467

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.