Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 2, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 2, 2026, 9:48 AM to 10:17 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 2, 2026 at 9:48 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 13.4682. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:17 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.3218.0422.76Oct 2, 9:48 AM ET10:17 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 9:48 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.3218.0422.76Oct 2, 9:48 AM ET10:17 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:48 AM ET13.4682
Projected value at 10:17 AM ET21.8116
Actual value at 10:17 AM ET22.9558
Projected change across the window+8.34345
Actual change across the window+9.4876
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.88×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.88 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 26 (10:13 AM ET), where they sat 0.010632 apart, and furthest at bar 3 (9:51 AM ET) with a gap of 6.17862. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 22 (10:10 AM ET), a move of +1.16643. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:49 AM18.238314.2192-4.01912
69:54 AM19.703315.1282-4.57505
1210:00 AM20.537216.568-3.96922
1810:06 AM20.837217.2935-3.54374
2410:12 AM21.649220.7613-0.887893
2910:17 AM21.811622.9558+1.14415

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.