Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 1, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 1, 2026, 3:04 PM to 3:33 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 1, 2026 at 3:04 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 12.2951. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:33 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

11.6817.1422.61Oct 1, 3:04 PM ET3:33 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 3:04 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

11.6817.1422.61Oct 1, 3:04 PM ET3:33 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:04 PM ET12.2951
Projected value at 3:33 PM ET20.7792
Actual value at 3:33 PM ET22.5237
Projected change across the window+8.48416
Actual change across the window+10.2287
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading23 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.83×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.83 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 23 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 29 (3:32 PM ET), where they sat 0.413973 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (3:04 PM ET) with a gap of 11.0514. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (3:33 PM ET), a move of +1.47486. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:05 PM22.313212.7733-9.53981
63:10 PM19.990312.695-7.29523
123:16 PM19.470612.3669-7.10374
183:22 PM19.475713.0621-6.41364
243:28 PM20.551717.6584-2.89327
293:33 PM20.779222.5237+1.74449

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.