Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 12:20 PM to 12:49 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 30, 2026 at 12:20 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 9.46325. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:49 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

10.2616.1722.08Sep 30, 12:20 PM ET12:49 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:20 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

10.2616.1722.08Sep 30, 12:20 PM ET12:49 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:20 PM ET9.46325
Projected value at 12:49 PM ET22.7779
Actual value at 12:49 PM ET20.0519
Projected change across the window+13.3146
Actual change across the window+10.5886
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.26×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.26 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (12:49 PM ET), where they sat 2.72596 apart, and furthest at bar 10 (12:30 PM ET) with a gap of 8.42488. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 8 (12:28 PM ET), a move of -1.85624. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:21 PM14.57349.64599-4.92737
612:26 PM17.499812.696-4.80382
1212:32 PM20.684412.931-7.75333
1812:38 PM21.89617.0396-4.85645
2412:44 PM22.247115.2185-7.02867
2912:49 PM22.777920.0519-2.72596

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Live confidence score ADX for MT5 Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on MNQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

Is there an indicator that predicts the next MNQ candle? Yes. On a NinjaTrader 8 or MT5 MNQ chart, PredictIndicators shows the predicted open, high, low and close of the coming bars to the right of the last bar. Next candle prediction indicator →

How do I add the MNQ prediction indicator in NinjaTrader 8? Download PredictIndicators for your platform, activate the 3 day free licence and add it to your MNQ chart: the predicted candles appear right away. How to install →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.