Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 4:30 AM to 4:59 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 30, 2026 at 4:30 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 18.6166. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:59 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

16.921.7326.56Sep 30, 4:30 AM ET4:59 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 4:30 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

16.921.7326.56Sep 30, 4:30 AM ET4:59 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:30 AM ET18.6166
Projected value at 4:59 AM ET24.2648
Actual value at 4:59 AM ET22.8657
Projected change across the window+5.64815
Actual change across the window+4.24905
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.33×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.33 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 26 (4:55 AM ET), where they sat 0.0589517 apart, and furthest at bar 16 (4:46 AM ET) with a gap of 4.92858. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 9 (4:39 AM ET), a move of +1.25029. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:31 AM16.257417.4412+1.18381
64:36 AM17.878219.8073+1.92907
124:42 AM20.907724.2334+3.32563
184:48 AM22.742726.1932+3.45048
244:54 AM24.212124.3103+0.0981964
294:59 AM24.264822.8657-1.39911

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

Chart reader ADX for MetaTrader Yes. Alongside the regular ADX, PredictIndicators shows where the ADX is predicted to go next on MNQ, updated as each bar closes, in NinjaTrader 8 and MT5. ADX indicator for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

Is there an AI chat inside MetaTrader 5 for MNQ? A general chatbot only sees a screenshot. The PredictIndicators chat indicator reads your live MNQ chart in NinjaTrader 8 or MT5, including every indicator you have open and the predicted candles. ChatGPT for NinjaTrader 8 and MT5 →

How to install an indicator in MetaTrader 5 for Micro Nasdaq 100 futures In NinjaTrader 8 import the zip with Tools → Import → NinjaScript Add On; in MetaTrader 5 run the setup. Then add PredictIndicators to your MNQ chart. How to install →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.