Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 1:00 AM to 1:29 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 43.1599. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:29 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

24.813443.2Sep 30, 1:00 AM ET1:29 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 1:00 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

24.813443.2Sep 30, 1:00 AM ET1:29 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:00 AM ET43.1599
Projected value at 1:29 AM ET23.6529
Actual value at 1:29 AM ET26.9763
Projected change across the window-19.507
Actual change across the window-16.1836
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.21×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.21 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (1:27 AM ET), where they sat 0.0530928 apart, and furthest at bar 5 (1:05 AM ET) with a gap of 14.3625. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 11 (1:11 AM ET), a move of -1.94135. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:01 AM30.689743.6017+12.9119
61:06 AM29.754943.5115+13.7566
121:12 AM27.626935.067+7.4401
181:18 AM25.821128.436+2.61487
241:24 AM24.071925.6396+1.56772
291:29 AM23.652926.9763+3.32343

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.