Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 12:08 AM to 12:37 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 12:08 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 43.2826. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:37 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

22.4932.2341.97Sep 30, 12:08 AM ET12:37 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:08 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

22.4932.2341.97Sep 30, 12:08 AM ET12:37 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:08 AM ET43.2826
Projected value at 12:37 AM ET21.2186
Actual value at 12:37 AM ET25.5952
Projected change across the window-22.064
Actual change across the window-17.6873
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.25×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.25 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 23 (12:30 AM ET), where they sat 3.42913 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (12:08 AM ET) with a gap of 19.0318. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 3 (12:11 AM ET), a move of -1.92342. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:09 AM24.320142.1454+17.8253
612:14 AM22.907235.2338+12.3266
1212:20 AM21.814329.5065+7.69228
1812:26 AM21.420626.5614+5.14083
2412:32 AM21.331425.2832+3.95184
2912:37 AM21.218625.5952+4.37665

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.