Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 9:37 AM to 10:06 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 9:37 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 38.4195. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:06 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

25.1631.6438.12Sep 29, 9:37 AM ET10:06 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 9:37 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

25.1631.6438.12Sep 29, 9:37 AM ET10:06 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 9:37 AM ET38.4195
Projected value at 10:06 AM ET26.0788
Actual value at 10:06 AM ET24.8966
Projected change across the window-12.3407
Actual change across the window-13.5229
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.91×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.91 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 7 (9:43 AM ET), where they sat 0.151195 apart, and furthest at bar 15 (9:52 AM ET) with a gap of 6.59045. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 12 (9:49 AM ET), a move of -1.70758. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
19:38 AM36.38438.4491+2.06509
69:43 AM36.421636.5728+0.151195
129:49 AM34.174229.8975-4.27664
189:55 AM30.202425.6559-4.54655
2410:01 AM27.918224.2926-3.62563
2910:06 AM26.078824.8966-1.1822

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.