Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 8:22 AM to 8:51 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 8:22 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 26.8512. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:51 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

16.4523.6630.86Sep 29, 8:22 AM ET8:51 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 8:22 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

16.4523.6630.86Sep 29, 8:22 AM ET8:51 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:22 AM ET26.8512
Projected value at 8:51 AM ET21.268
Actual value at 8:51 AM ET31.8242
Projected change across the window-5.58323
Actual change across the window+4.97297
Bars moving the same direction24 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.12×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall, while it rose instead. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.12 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 83% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 17 (8:38 AM ET), where they sat 0.0423228 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (8:51 AM ET) with a gap of 10.5562. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 2 (8:24 AM ET), a move of -2.47666. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:23 AM21.915724.4601+2.54433
68:28 AM20.536516.1841-4.35233
128:34 AM20.093518.1695-1.92396
188:40 AM20.188222.5516+2.36339
248:46 AM20.678325.3252+4.64684
298:51 AM21.26831.8242+10.5562

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

See live indicator predictions on PredictIndicators.ai →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.