Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 12:58 PM to 1:27 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 28, 2026 at 12:58 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 15.6392. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:27 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.0118.5124Sep 28, 12:58 PM ET1:27 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:58 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.0118.5124Sep 28, 12:58 PM ET1:27 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:58 PM ET15.6392
Projected value at 1:27 PM ET24.743
Actual value at 1:27 PM ET23.2389
Projected change across the window+9.10373
Actual change across the window+7.59963
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading21 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.20×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.20 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 21 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 8 (1:05 PM ET), where they sat 0.0930809 apart, and furthest at bar 15 (1:13 PM ET) with a gap of 6.50048. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 13 (1:11 PM ET), a move of -1.35196. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:59 PM12.59316.7898+4.19681
61:04 PM15.391716.3962+1.00451
121:10 PM19.407617.4909-1.91669
181:16 PM21.886716.9046-4.98218
241:22 PM23.758919.9875-3.7714
291:27 PM24.74323.2389-1.50411

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.