Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 12:57 PM to 1:26 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 28, 2026 at 12:57 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 16.7898. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:26 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.3718.5623.75Sep 28, 12:57 PM ET1:26 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:57 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.3718.5623.75Sep 28, 12:57 PM ET1:26 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:57 PM ET16.7898
Projected value at 1:26 PM ET24.2084
Actual value at 1:26 PM ET24.4489
Projected change across the window+7.41861
Actual change across the window+7.65915
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading22 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.97×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.97 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 22 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 10 (1:06 PM ET), where they sat 0.0199638 apart, and furthest at bar 15 (1:12 PM ET) with a gap of 5.03232. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 12 (1:09 PM ET), a move of -1.35196. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:58 PM12.77116.7459+3.97487
61:03 PM15.024315.971+0.946685
121:09 PM18.759616.1389-2.62074
181:15 PM20.691717.9952-2.69644
241:21 PM22.83919.9907-2.84827
291:26 PM24.208424.4489+0.240536

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.