Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 7:53 AM to 8:22 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 28, 2026 at 7:53 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 12.9085. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:22 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.7915.818.81Sep 28, 7:53 AM ET8:22 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 7:53 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.7915.818.81Sep 28, 7:53 AM ET8:22 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:53 AM ET12.9085
Projected value at 8:22 AM ET19.2138
Actual value at 8:22 AM ET17.6826
Projected change across the window+6.30537
Actual change across the window+4.77415
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.32×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.32 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 11 (8:03 AM ET), where they sat 0.222053 apart, and furthest at bar 17 (8:10 AM ET) with a gap of 3.10679. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 20 (8:13 AM ET), a move of +0.994104. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:54 AM12.875212.3816-0.493665
67:59 AM13.003612.7545-0.249032
128:05 AM14.48912.5201-1.96892
188:11 AM16.057313.632-2.42537
248:17 AM17.756516.3613-1.39522
298:22 AM19.213817.6826-1.53122

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.