Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 3:13 AM to 3:42 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 28, 2026 at 3:13 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 13.1261. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:42 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.1216.7420.36Sep 28, 3:13 AM ET3:42 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 3:13 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.1216.7420.36Sep 28, 3:13 AM ET3:42 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:13 AM ET13.1261
Projected value at 3:42 AM ET19.2799
Actual value at 3:42 AM ET17.7488
Projected change across the window+6.15386
Actual change across the window+4.62269
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.33×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.33 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 13 (3:25 AM ET), where they sat 0.193774 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (3:14 AM ET) with a gap of 4.21233. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 19 (3:32 AM ET), a move of -1.5008. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:14 AM16.842412.6301-4.21233
63:19 AM17.151714.2966-2.85507
123:25 AM18.073317.8796-0.193774
183:31 AM18.576419.4199+0.843498
243:37 AM19.240318.658-0.582276
293:42 AM19.279917.7488-1.53118

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.