Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 1:36 AM to 2:05 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 28, 2026 at 1:36 AM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 12.9977. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:05 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.8320.0326.23Sep 28, 1:36 AM ET2:05 AM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 1:36 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.8320.0326.23Sep 28, 1:36 AM ET2:05 AM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:36 AM ET12.9977
Projected value at 2:05 AM ET19.721
Actual value at 2:05 AM ET22.3193
Projected change across the window+6.7233
Actual change across the window+9.32157
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.72×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.72 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 7 (1:42 AM ET), where they sat 0.0473585 apart, and furthest at bar 17 (1:53 AM ET) with a gap of 8.56163. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 17 (1:53 AM ET), a move of +1.62365. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:37 AM17.202513.416-3.78653
61:42 AM16.752516.7999+0.0473585
121:48 AM17.376122.2074+4.83124
181:54 AM18.487326.4767+7.98945
242:00 AM19.359120.4424+1.08333
292:05 AM19.72122.3193+2.59828

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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NinjaTrader next candle high low prediction Yes. PredictIndicators runs inside NinjaTrader 8: the predicted MNQ candles and the predicted indicators sit on your own chart, next to the indicators you already use. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.