Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 10:19 PM to 10:48 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 27, 2026 at 10:19 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 52.4767. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:48 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

27.0738.9850.88Sep 27, 10:19 PM ET10:48 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:19 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

27.0738.9850.88Sep 27, 10:19 PM ET10:48 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:19 PM ET52.4767
Projected value at 10:48 PM ET25.4764
Actual value at 10:48 PM ET31.5679
Projected change across the window-27.0003
Actual change across the window-20.9088
Bars moving the same direction24 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.29×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.29 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 83% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 21 (10:39 PM ET), where they sat 1.47709 apart, and furthest at bar 15 (10:34 PM ET) with a gap of 13.7169. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 20 (10:39 PM ET), a move of -3.07871. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:20 PM41.469652.1904+10.7208
610:25 PM37.149548.8838+11.7343
1210:31 PM31.550444.879+13.3286
1810:37 PM28.112635.0135+6.90093
2410:43 PM26.404630.881+4.4764
2910:48 PM25.476431.5679+6.09144

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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MetaTrader what are predicted candlesticks Yes. The same PredictIndicators predictions run on MetaTrader 5 charts, with one licence covering MT5 and NinjaTrader 8. MetaTrader 5 price prediction indicator →

NinjaTrader predict ADX direction Yes. PredictIndicators runs inside NinjaTrader 8: the predicted MNQ candles and the predicted indicators sit on your own chart, next to the indicators you already use. NinjaTrader 8 price prediction indicator →

Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.