Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 10:11 PM to 10:40 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 10:11 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 47.0337. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:40 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

28.2440.4552.66Sep 27, 10:11 PM ET10:40 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 10:11 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

28.2440.4552.66Sep 27, 10:11 PM ET10:40 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:11 PM ET47.0337
Projected value at 10:40 PM ET26.6051
Actual value at 10:40 PM ET29.6779
Projected change across the window-20.4286
Actual change across the window-17.3558
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.18×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.18 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 9 (10:19 PM ET), where they sat 0.255339 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (10:11 PM ET) with a gap of 7.26945. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 12 (10:23 PM ET), a move of -3.07871. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:12 PM52.734746.5277-6.207
610:17 PM44.217443.7108-0.506615
1210:23 PM35.68629.076-6.60997
1810:29 PM31.194732.759+1.56433
2410:35 PM28.178331.2469+3.06862
2910:40 PM26.605129.6779+3.07275

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.