Directional Movement (ADX) forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 11, 2026, 3:52 PM to 4:21 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 11, 2026 at 3:52 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 20.3727. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:21 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.5526.7735.99Sep 11, 3:52 PM ET4:21 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 3:52 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.5526.7735.99Sep 11, 3:52 PM ET4:21 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:52 PM ET20.3727
Projected value at 4:21 PM ET23.1086
Actual value at 4:21 PM ET22.3912
Projected change across the window+2.7359
Actual change across the window+2.01846
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.36×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.36 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (4:21 PM ET), where they sat 0.717437 apart, and furthest at bar 18 (4:10 PM ET) with a gap of 15.0024. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 26 (4:18 PM ET), a move of -2.05901. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:53 PM17.561821.6731+4.11129
63:58 PM20.831528.0992+7.2677
124:04 PM21.833331.2633+9.42993
184:10 PM22.221137.2236+15.0024
244:16 PM21.952930.3854+8.43251
294:21 PM23.108622.3912-0.717437

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1-minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.