Directional Movement (ADX) prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 11, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 11, 2026, 12:57 PM to 1:26 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 11, 2026 at 12:57 PM ET, Directional Movement (ADX) on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 25.1974. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:26 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

17.2224.6131.99Sep 11, 12:57 PM ET1:26 PM ET
Projected Directional Movement (ADX) path, 30 bars from 12:57 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

17.2224.6131.99Sep 11, 12:57 PM ET1:26 PM ET
Recorded Directional Movement (ADX) values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:57 PM ET25.1974
Projected value at 1:26 PM ET21.3424
Actual value at 1:26 PM ET28.8595
Projected change across the window-3.855
Actual change across the window+3.6621
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.05×

Reading this window

The projection called for Directional Movement (ADX) to fall, while it rose instead. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.05 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 4 (1:00 PM ET), where they sat 0.228898 apart, and furthest at bar 25 (1:22 PM ET) with a gap of 11.1955. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (1:26 PM ET), a move of -2.46905. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:58 PM21.774423.8308+2.05635
61:03 PM21.412117.5885-3.82357
121:09 PM21.52319.0597-2.46335
181:15 PM21.763823.7411+1.97725
241:21 PM21.78431.7837+9.99968
291:26 PM21.342428.8595+7.5171

About Directional Movement (ADX) on a 1 minute chart

ADX summarises how strongly a market is trending, without saying which way. Higher readings mean a more persistent move, in either direction. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.